How Does Online Reputation Affect Social Media Endorsements and Product Sales? Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Design
Despite the increasing importance of social media marketing, little extant research has studied what factors that consumers would take into account in the decision-making of endorsing a product to their peers with established ties via social media. This paper examines if online reputation (restaurants’ displayed Yelp ratings), which helps update consumers’ expected utility, is a causal factor that affects consumers’ decisions of endorsing via Facebook and purchasing products (the restaurants’ vouchers). I build a stylized Bayesian learning model and derive the hypotheses: (1) a higher online reputation leads to increased social media endorsements and voucher sales, but only when the number of review ratings is sufficiently large; (2) these effects are greater for restaurants with more reviews; and (3) these effects are greater for restaurants with a larger variance in the review ratings. Interestingly, the third hypothesis contrasts to the predictions by established theories (e.g., cue diagnosticity theory). I test the hypotheses using data of Groupon and LivingSocial deals. To identify the causal effects of online reputation, I use a regression discontinuity design by exploiting the institutional feature that displayed Yelp ratings are rounded to the nearest half star. The empirical results largely support the hypotheses. In particular, I find the effect of displayed Yelp ratings on Facebook Likes is greater when the variance of ratings is larger, suggesting that perhaps consumers are risk averse in the decision-making of endorsing a product to their peers. Yet, the effect on voucher sales does not significantly differ with the variance.
Xitong Li - MIT Sloan School of Management